![]() ![]() ![]() 2020 O’Brien 2009 Perez Peña 2014).ĭespite all this, recent research interest also grew around the counter-intuitive idea that confirmation bias could be advantageous (Austerweil & Griffiths 2011 Dardenne & Leyens 1995 Mercier & Sperber 2011 Rollwage & Fleming 2021). Among others, forensic science is a field that is especially concerned about confirmation bias (to name just a few examples, Cole 2013 Kassin et al. Because of this, confirmation bias is usually seen as an obstacle that needs to be overcome by the scientific method (Schumm 2021) or with the aid of computer programs (Silverman 1992). Ergo, bias in the selection of data can transform the process of data mining into a task of “data minding”. Nickerson points out that - from a scientific perspective - confirmation bias has a problematic property: “People sometimes see in data the patterns for which they are looking, regardless of whether the patterns are really there” (Nickerson 1998, p. Therefore, confirmation bias does not only interfere with the process of hypothesis forming, but also with hypothesis testing. It was observed that participants primarily try to confirm a certain rule they had in mind, instead of trying to rule out (i.e., falsify) alternatives (Wason 1968). In fact, confirmation bias can be a hindrance in the pursuit of truth, as it was elegantly demonstrated in Wason’s experiments on the determination of rules (Wason 1960). Historically, the principle of confirmation bias was already described in the 17th century by Francis Bacon (Bacon 1620), and had a mostly negative connotation. ![]() Furthermore, information that contradicts people’s beliefs is more likely to be ignored, scrutinized or neglected (Kappes et al. Such behaviors are manifestations of a phenomenon called “Confirmation Bias”, which comes in many different forms (Nickerson 1998) and by many different names such as “confirmatory bias” (Mahoney 1977) or “myside bias” (Hugo Mercier 2016). 2001) and can also result in a better memory for supportive information (Frost et al. This tendency can be the cause for an increased attentiveness towards such information (Jonas et al. Humans have a tendency to prefer information that confirms their presupposed ideas, theories, or opinions, and to interpret ambiguous information in a way that is supportive of their already existing beliefs. We discuss our findings in relation to topics such as polarization of opinions, the persistence of first impressions, and the social theory of reasoning. We conclude that confirmation bias sensitizes agents towards a certain type of data, which allows them to detect more signals. Thus, we can show that confirmation bias increases the fitness of agents in an evolutionary algorithm. Given this basic assumptions, biased agents perform better than unbiased agents in a wide variety of possible scenarios. Additionally, detecting signals is associated with benefits, while missing signals is associated with costs. Compared to unbiased agents, biased agents have a higher chance to detect the signal they are biased for, and a lower chance to detect other signals. To test this idea, we developed a minimally complex agent-based model in which agents detect binary signals. Confirmation bias has been traditionally seen as a detrimental aspect of the human mind, but recently researchers have also argued that it might be advantageous under certain circumstances. ![]()
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